Here we go again.
Wall Street strategists continue to chase the market, this time adjusting their year-end target forecasts for the S&P 500 Index lower after the market declined. Last year, they chased the market higher, increasing their forecasts after the market rallied.
Below is a list of Wall Street firms and their 2025 year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 Index. You can see that many of them reduced their forecasts lower from their original bullish targets last offered in December. Some firms are still holding out on adjusting their targets. Let’s see how long they can hold onto them.
Time will tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some strategists raise their forecasts if the markets rally significantly from here for whatever reason. Whichever way the markets move, just don’t be surprised if the Wall Street strategists are forced to chase the markets again.
I’m not using these forecasts to dictate any investment decisions I make, but if any of these forecasts hold, according to most of these strategists, there may be upside in the S&P 500 Index from April 15th through the end of the year. As stated on KulwickiInsights.com for years, I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in any of these forecasts.
If you’ve been following me for a while, I have been consistently telling readers not to put a lot of conviction in these forecasts from investment strategists. They are just guessing and plugging in some numbers into their forecast models. My biggest problem is that they are trying to be too precise despite significant uncertainty in trying to predict the future. It provides a false sense of security for other investors that follow them and invest based on their forecasts.
I actually recently heard a strategist say they were naturally bullish on their forecasts to start each year because history has shown that markets have generally been higher each year, on average. That really annoyed me.
As stated in the past, I think these strategists hate putting out these forecasts and they generally just try to stay in line with the rest of the strategists’ forecasts. Regardless of what the strategist really thinks on a personal level, I’m sure they don’t want the firm’s forecast to get too far from the average. They don’t want themselves or the firm to look bad if their forecast is too far from the rest of the strategists.
If you look at the other posts I’ve had on the topic (linked below), you’ll see that most strategists have a bullish forecast each year, targeting about an 8% return for the S&P 500 Index. In my January post on the 2024/2025 Wall Street Strategists’ forecasts, I provided a way for you to calculate your own year-end target for the S&P 500 Index. My range for the S&P 500 as stated in my January post was 4200 on the downside and 7300 on the upside. You can read how I calculated that range in the post. So for me, from a valuation perspective, if the S&P 500 declined to 4200, I’d want to add risk, and if the S&P 500 rallied to the 7300 level without fundamental valuation support, I’d be less interested in being heavily exposed to risk.
You can read my posts and personal issues with these Wall Street strategists’ forecasts here…
- Wall Street Strategists’ Forecasts 2024/2025 January 5, 2025
- Market Rallies -> Strategists Raise Forecasts May 21, 2024
- Wall Street Strategists’ Guesses for 2024 January 14, 2024
- Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Forecast Review – Ouch! January 9, 2024
- Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess) January 15, 2023
Instead of following investment strategists and their short-term guesses, consider taking a longer-term approach, focus on investing in higher quality, growing companies, and let the market come to you.
Source
- MarketWatch. Wall Street predicts a 10% stock rebound by the end of 2025. Why investors shouldn’t buy the hype just yet. Wang. April 15, 2025.