Wall Street Strategists’ Guesses for 2024

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Ok, let’s try this again: Wall Street S&P 500 Index year-end forecasts for 2024.

Remember last year, in my post dated Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess) on January 15, 2023, I listed various Wall Street firms’ forecasts for the year-end 2023 value of the S&P 500 Index. I never like these forecasts, but it can be useful to get a sense of the “experts'” sentiment on U.S. equities in general. I don’t put much value in the actual number since I’m a long-term investor. I try to let the market come to me and take action rather than trying to predict something and taking action before it occurs, which may or may not occur and mistakes are made if your are wrong.

Wall Street 2024 S&P 500 Index Year-End Value Forecasts

Source: MarketWatch.com1

So for 2024, even with all of the highly-paid professionals and access to plenty of data, the range of forecasts for the S&P 500 Index at the end of 2024 is 5400-4200, which is a spread of 28%!

The median forecasted value is 5100, so with a 2023 year-end value for the S&P 500 Index of 4769.83, that’s a forecasted gain of about 6.9%. So another year of a forecasted gain of 6-8%.

Look at my January 15, 2023 post again. Guess what that forecasted increase for the S&P 500 Index was for 2023 based on the forecasted median price? 6.7%! Almost the same forecasted gain for 2024! They’re not even trying.

Here’s the snippet from my post last year regarding their forecasted gain…

Source: KulwickiInsights.com2

So, if Wall Street strategists are closer to target this year, with a median value gain of 6.9%, then add a potential 1.5% dividend yield, that gets you closer to 8.4%, give or take. Again, not bad if it comes true, but this is close to the forecasted total return for the S&P 500 Index each year. Nothing earth shattering or difficult.

What Should You Do?

Ok, so what should you do? There is some real investment research that is done by these firms to support their views, but in my opinion, take them with a grain of salt. You can use these forecasts as a guide, or close your eyes and throw a dart to see which firm will be the closest to correct at the end of the year.

Just try to consider these when investing in equity markets…

  • No one knows the future regardless of how confident they sound.
  • Focus on the long-term when investing in a diversified portfolio of high quality growing companies.
  • Expect volatility across all markets.
  • The S&P 500 Index can rise/fall 10-15% each year on average. Some years more, some years less. Other equity indices (small caps, international, etc.) can have even larger swings.

Summary

In summary, regardless of who you talk to, read about, or hear on TV, EVERYONE has an opinion. Don’t be swayed by just the loudest voices or make emotional investment decisions when market volatility eventually arrives.

Focus on what you can control (the amount of risk/volatility you are willing to accept), diversify, and try to focus on the long-term potential of compounding growth to build wealth.

Sources

  1. MarketWatch.com, “What 2024 S&P 500 forecasts really say about the stock market”, December 11, 2023. Retrieved from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-2024-s-p-500-forecasts-really-say-about-the-stock-market-b7609718.
  2. KulwickiInsights.com “Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess)”, January 15, 2023. Retrieved from https://www.kulwickiinsights.com/wall-street-strategists-2023-outlook-guess/
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