Insights & Opinions

Well, it’s that time of year again to take a look at Wall Street strategists’ year-end S&P 500 Index guesses (forecasts). Without looking, how do you think they did? For the record, I don’t envy the strategists’ job having to provide a price target for the S&P 500 Index, and I’m probably sure they don’t

Ok.  Sometimes I really get an urge to say something. This is especially the case when it comes to politics and the financial markets. Politics can be emotional. I totally get it. I’m not a fan of the tribalism when it comes to politics. I have opinions, and so do others. Based on our own

Ok, so it’s getting old posting about this, but with the S&P 500 Index up strongly this year to 5308 on the index, we’ve started to see Wall Street strategists increasing their year-end forecast for the index. It never fails. Market is up = Strategists increase their year-end targets Market is down = Strategists decrease

Feeling a bit nervous? Maybe fears of a sell off? Maybe even a little FOMO (fear of missing out)? The three popular U.S. large cap equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average) have all recently hit new all-time highs. When you throw in dividends from a total return perspective, the highs are

Ok, let’s try this again: Wall Street S&P 500 Index year-end forecasts for 2024. Remember last year, in my post dated Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess) on January 15, 2023, I listed various Wall Street firms’ forecasts for the year-end 2023 value of the S&P 500 Index. I never like these forecasts, but it

Wall Street strategists dedicate significant time and effort to forecasting financial markets with some sense of precision. In my post last January 15th, 2023 titled “Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess)”, I indicated that Wall Street strategist forecasts were just guesses and putting any real faith in them may be futile. Below are the forecasts

We made it to another year! It’s time to reflect on 2023 with all the ups and downs personally and in the financial markets. Hopefully we’ve all learned something and can take that forward to better ourselves and others. I love life and try to be a perpetual optimist, so here’s to a great 2024

Looking back at my posts on October 9th and August 3rd, I thought that if the 10-year Treasury yield could break above that 4% level, it could quickly get to the 5% level, and that’s what appeared to have happened. Remember as bond prices move higher, interest rate-sensitive bond prices decline. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield

On the August 1st post “Close to Prior Peaks and Resistance Levels”, I indicated that equity markets could struggle to go higher after a strong up move from October of last year and getting close to previous highs. I stated that if markets sold off from there, the 50-week moving average could be an area

Equity and bond markets sold off since August. You’re not surprised are you? You anticipated this could happen, didn’t you? Volatility in equity, bond, commodity, currency and other markets should be expected. This is especially the case in publicly-traded markets when millions of people and trillions of dollars can move in and out of the

Equity markets have rallied to end June, which is also the end of the second quarter, a time when client statements are calculated. Consider FOMO “fear of missing out” and “window dressing” as driving the markets higher into the end of the month/quarter. Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) Remember, investors, whether less experienced or very

There is always something that investors are concerned about. Now it’s the debt ceiling and the U.S. government’s willingness to pay its bills. This show has happened before and we have not formally defaulted on any of our debt in the past and I doubt we will this time around. Anything is possible, but even

Two weeks ago, everything “seemed” fine. Markets were still focusing on higher inflation numbers in January, and were pricing in a Federal Reserve fed funds rate hike of up to 50 bps (0.50%) at the next Fed meeting. Now the narrative has quickly changed (“Look – A Squirrel!”). Fast forward to today, two regional banks

Whenever I talk about technicals, particularly moving averages, I often use the term “squiggly lines”. Moving averages are literally lines on a chart that are automatically drawn/calculated, taking the average price of an investment over a specific time period. At a high level, these moving averages are often discussed at 50-day, 100-day and 200-day intervals.

I recently saw an e-mail from a random firm that essentially stated that the markets were going to crash and to “click here” for the one investment that you need to protect from this big crash. Please do not fall for this garbage. Anyone can send and e-mail, be on TV, the radio, in a

It’s that time of the year and Wall Street strategists offer their 2023 outlook for the S&P 500 Index year end target. It’s that time of the year when smart people, discuss with other smart people, look at a lot of data and come up with a guess. Yes, a guess. Let’s keep this post

With a new year brings higher contribution limits and income adjustments across a number of advantaged investment accounts, including retirement plans (401ks, etc.), IRAs, HSAs and 529 plans. Make sure you check to see how you can take advantage of the new updates on these great saving and investing vehicles! Quick Links 401k and IRA

Just a quick part 2 to the previous post about how the market could rally, now significantly decline. Remember, markets don’t always move based on long-term fundamentals. Sometimes it’s just based on news events or market technicals. The 3% sell off in the U.S. equity markets may have been driven by both. The Federal Reserve

I recently had a deep conversation with an experienced financial advisor about the backtested performance of a couple of model portfolios that were presented. He mentioned to me that the performance looked really attractive, including one model that showed backtested performance of no negative annual returns for several years. He was really excited about this

Shouldn’t the equity markets sell off because we just have to be in a recession? Earnings have been bad, shouldn’t the market crash? The Fed just raised the fed funds rate 75 basis points (0.75%), shouldn’t that be bad for the equity markets? Aren’t the media heads talking about how high inflation and a recession

I recently had a discussion with an experienced financial advisor about the bond markets. He believed that bonds would sell off when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate at the next meeting, which was widely anticipated. He thought that when the Fed raised the fed funds rate, yields across the yield curve

As I speak with various financial advisors, investment professionals, friends, family, etc. about the markets, I continue to reiterate that everyone has an opinion. I’ve used the phrase “nobody knows shit” (sorry for the vulgarity) multiple times in the last couple of months, so I thought I’d share my thoughts here, particularly in an environment

Yesterday I had lunch with an experienced, successful financial advisor. We touched on a number of topics, but started to share our ideas about the markets. This discussion was a great example of different Investor Types, which you can learn more about in our Lessons. The advisor I was speaking with tends to be a